Estimasi Inflasi Di Kota Lhokseumawe Dengan Metode Box-Jenkins Menggunakan Model Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)

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Abstract— Inflation is an economic problem in each region. Its continuous development has become an obstacle to economic growth for the better. Changes in the inflation rate tend to occur in each region such as the City of Lhokseumawe which is an agricultural area. To overcome the instability of the inflation rate, one way that can be done is to predict time series data. The Box-Jenkins method with the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model has the ability to capture the information needed about the inflation rate and is able to cope with the instability of the inflation rate. This is because ARIMA is a time series forecasting model suitable for predicting a number of variables quickly, simply, cheaply, and accurately and only requires variable data to be predicted.

Keywords— Inflation, agricultural area, time series, ARIMA, forcasting